Beginning in early spring 2015, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups began a long planned, far reaching series of offensives against remaining Syrian government positions located in the Idlib province. The participating groups involved ranged from extremist US-designated terror organizations like Jabhat al-Nusra to various Free Syrian Army formations including some of those who had been supplied with United States’ produced TOW anti-tank guided missiles. As the offensive progressed, many of these groups claimed advances on social media websites and applications such as Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp which were then verified by independent users on these websites using pictures and videos uploaded throughout the day. We will examine one such claim and show how it could be verified before being confirmed by official news or government outlets.
Authors Note: Many of the Syrian opposition social media accounts that were used to upload claims, pictures, and footage from this time period have been deleted due to breaking the terms of service on these social media websites or lost to time without any archiving. Therefore the sources used here will not have originated from their original posters but instead secondary accounts from the time period.
The Capture of Idlib: In the early morning (EST) of March 28th, 2015 reports began emerging from Syrian opposition accounts claiming the capture of the provincial capital of the Idlib province, Idlib City, from Syrian government forces.
Tweet originally posted by a Jabhat al-Nusra affiliated Twitter account, screenshot sourced from here.
Translation: “#Jabhat al-Nusra God is great and praise be to God, liberation of the city of #Idlib entirely and the Mujaheddin pursue the remainder of the Shabiha* during their attempt to flee. #Army of Conquest #Conquest of Idlib”
Tweet originally posted by a Ahrar al-Sham affiliated Twitter account, screenshot sourced from here.
Translation: “#Breaking #Operations_Room_of_Army_of_Conquest #The_Islamic_Front #Ahrar_al_Sham, Control of the entire city of #Idlib and the retreat of what is left of the remains of the militias of #Assad outside of the city.”
Verification: Although intense fighting had occurred on the outskirts of the city in the previous days with the capture of many government checkpoints by the Syrian opposition, the fall of the city proper was swifter than expected leading to the questioning of these claims. As the day progressed, Syrian opposition social media accounts as well as independent Syrian reporters began uploading images and videos supposedly from within side the city. By using techniques of open source investigations such as geolocation as well as cross-referencing social media posts, opposition positions and overall control of the city could be confirmed.
Image originally uploaded by a Jabhat al-Nusra affiliated Twitter account, screenshot sourced from here.
Translation: “The roundabout of the clock(tower) that was taken control of by the grace and praise of God.”
Image originally uploaded by an Ahrar al-Sham affiliated Twitter account, screenshot sourced from here.
Translation: “#Idlib_Liberated…Square of the Clock(tower).
The first step in verifying these photos is determining their position in the city.
Above is a view of Idlib City from Google Maps with the approximate location of the clock tower square circled in red.
By zooming in on Google Maps the clock tower can be seen roughly in the middle of the above photo. The total area of the park is outlined with a yellow line while another part of the square with a tree in the center is outlined in red. The blue circle with lines stretching outwards denotes the approximate position of the Jabhat al-Nusra cameraman who took the photo.
When compared to the original photo with the aforementioned colored lines inserted, a reference can be drawn between the two confirming the presence of the cameraman and thus Syrian opposition in that part of Idlib City. This can also be confirmed using the Ahrar al-Sham photo.
Once again, the yellow line outlines the rough area of the square. However this time the green line outlines the fountain object located behind the clocktower and the red line outlines a curving edge of the top of a building. Additionally the blue arrow depicts the approximate area of the Jabhat al-Nusra cameraman. Through a comparison to the satellite imagery below we can see the Ahrar al-Sham photo was taken from the back of the square looking over the fountain and to the clocktower. The blue circle with lines attached demonstrates the perspective of this photographer.
Finally, the location of these two images can also be confirmed through a video uploaded the same day by Syrian journalist Hadi Alabdallah titled “Video from the Clocktower Square in the heart of Idlib after its liberation.”
Conclusion: Although occasional gunshots can be heard in the background indicating the possibility of ongoing fighting for control of the city, this video clearly shows opposition elements as well as a journalist affiliated with the Syrian opposition in the clocktower square near the center of Idlib City. While not conclusive in proving that the Syrian opposition had taken control of the entire city, as the day went on more media would be uploaded to social media further showing the city in the opposition’s hands. Open source techniques like geolocation as demonstrated above are valuable in verifying claims using evidence from social media accounts. While not without their flaws, the ease of access provided by the internet allows for independent individuals to undertake their own investigations.